Giving Kerryon Johnson more carries vs. Cowboys wouldn’t have changed anything

Kerryon Johnson: 9 carries Cheap Matthew Stafford Jersey , 55 yards, 1 TDLeGarrette Blount: 7 carries, 12 yardsIt’s hard to look at that and not think, “Why is Blount getting any carries at all?” The picture looks even worse when you look at the season totals. Johnson is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 38 rushes. Blount is averaging 2.7 yards per carry on 35 rushes. Yeah, Johnson is getting three more yards PER CARRY than Blount right now. These facts fuel the fire that the Detroit Lions are being downright irresponsible with their running back usage. Despite the large disparity in productivity, their touches are nearly identical and their playing time is fairly similar (104 snaps for Johnson, 70 for Blount). Fans were especially frustrated with the Lions’ usage of Johnson on Sunday against the Cowboys. After taking the opening carry for 32 yards, Johnson ran the ball just eight more times the entire game, effectively shutting down the team’s running game the rest of the way. However, looking a little closer into the situation, it becomes pretty clear: Giving Kerryon Johnson more carries on Sunday would’ve made very little difference in the overall outcome. Here’s why:Kerryon Johnson wasn’t efficient running the ballLast week, I gushed about Johnson’s amazing performance against the Patriots. Nearly every one of his carries throughout the first 55 minutes of that game were “successful.” Here’s what I wrote:Basing success on Football Outsiders’ metrics, against the Cowboys, Johnson was successful on just three of nine rushes. Another impressive part of Johnson’s performance in Week 3 was his ability to eliminate rushes of little-to-no gain. Only one of 16 runs was stopped for a yard or less. Against the Cowboys, it was a much different story:Here was the progression of Johnson nine carries in order: 32 yards, 4, -1, 1, 0, 3, 2, 0, 8, 6. So during the middle portion of the game—when many argued Johnson deserved more touches—Johnson had 5 yards on six carries. Admittedly, LeGarrette Blount wasn’t any better (1.7 YPC for the game), but it’s not like Johnson was giving Detroit’s running game a boost at that point in the game. Rhythm mythMany believe that for a running back to be successful, he needs to be in the game consistently to get a feel for the game. Players will especially harp on this point, as Ameer Abdullah did this offseason on the Michael Rapaport podcast:“It’s frustrating, especially coming from Nebraska where I was the guy,” Abdullah said. “I knew I was going to get the ball at least 20 times a game, and for me, it’s not necessarily getting a certain amount of touches, it’s getting meaningful touches and getting into a rhythm.”But there is little empirical evidence supporting the idea of “getting into a rhythm”. Several studies have been done on the topic, and—much like the basketball “hot hand” myth—there is no statistical basis for this theory. From PFF’s Kevin Cole:All you have to do is go back to last week and see that Johnson was still very effective despite splitting time with Blount throughout the entire game. Here’s a look at the progressions of carries from Week 3:Blount, Blount, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Johnson, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Blount, Johnson Cheap Darius Slay Jr Jersey , Blount, Johnson, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Johnson, Blount, Johnson, Johnson, Blount, BlountIf Johnson’s rhythm was disrupted by this constant switching of backs—often times in the middle of drives—we certainly didn’t see any signs of it in his on-field performance in Week 3, so there’s no reason to believe Johnson’s lack of rhythm was the cause of his struggles on against the Cowboys.T.J. Lang injuryLang has been one of the Lions’ best offensive linemen since he joined the team last year. Unfortunately, the injury has caused him to miss a lot of time, and the Lions have struggled to find an adequate replacement. That was certainly the case on Sunday. Before his injury, the Lions rushed for 40 yards on six carries. Yes, that is heavily skewed by a 32-yard run, but the rest of the way, Johnson and Blount combined for just 27 yards on 11 carries (2.5 YPC). The other factor here is the Dallas defense. The Cowboys are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry as a team (sixth best). This isn’t the Patriots defense, there was just not much room to run, and with Lang out, Detroit couldn’t run the ball no matter who was in the game.When would the Lions have given Johnson more carries?I’ve seen a lot of people complain about Johnson getting more touches, but I haven’t seen many suggest specific times he should’ve been in the game. And herein lies the problem. In the first half, Johnson got six carries, which is a respectable number. I can understand if you wanted a little more in the first half (Blount had five), but if you think the Lions abandoned their gameplan in the second half, that would be highly misleading.The Lions offense barely even had the ball in the second half. Because of the defense’s ineptitude, the Lions had just three possessions in the second half and 16 total plays. By comparison, the Cowboys had four possessions and 42 plays.So of the Lions’ 16 second half plays, they gave Johnson the ball three times. Should that number have been higher? Maybe, but remember, they were also playing from behind for much of the second half, so there weren’t a lot of opportunities to run the ball. Also, the Lions managed to score touchdowns on two of their three possessions in the second half, so it’s not like their overall efficiency needed much improvement. Or to sum up a little less poetically:DurabilityNo one wants to say it, but Kerryon Johnson isn’t built to be a complete workhorse back in the NFL. That option is only available to a very select few, your Ezekiel Elliotts and Adrian Petersons. At 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, Kerryon Johnson doesn’t have the body size to get 20+ carries a game, and the Lions would be abusing their power if they were to do that to a player like him just a few games into his NFL career.Auburn didn’t seem afraid of that (he averaged 23.8 carries per game his senior year), but it resulted in a broken-down Johnson. The days of a workhorse back are nearly through in the NFL, and Johnson doesn’t fit the profile for that increasingly rare role. That being said, there’s a pretty big difference between nine and 20 carries per game. On an average week, there’s no doubt that Johnson should be getting closer to at least 15 carries a game. But against the Cowboys, the opportunities weren’t there Youth Kenny Golladay Jersey , the productivity wasn’t there, and the game situation made it so a more involved Kerryon Johnson wouldn’t have likely changed anything about how the game played out.Detroit Lions 53-man roster prediction: Preseason Week 3 depth chart The NFL is changing, and those changes have begun to bleed into things we consider normal in the preseason. With the Chicago Bears outright refusing to play starters in the third preseason game and others drastically cutting back on starter play, it won’t be too long before our first glimpse of the team’s starters is in Week 1 of the regular season. We aren’t there yet, however, and this week’s victory against the Buccaneers gave us a pretty good idea of where a majority of the roster stands. So we’re going to take another crack at a guess, with bolded players making the roster.QuarterbacksMatthew StaffordMatt CasselJake RudockChanges: NoneThis looks the same as it did in my last prediction and indeed in every prediction I’ve made since Matt Cassel was signed. That Rudock didn’t rep until late in the game against the Bucs is pretty telling, but the final nail will be watching Jake Rudock playing most of the final preseason game. He had a decent run, but this is likely the end. Running backsKerryon JohnsonLeGarrette BlountTheo RiddickAmeer AbdullahFB Nick Bawden (IR)FB Nick BelloreZach ZennerDwayne WashingtonChanges: NoneI stand by my previous assertion that Kerryon Johnson will be the starter sooner than later with Blount getting a large volume of carries and Riddick in his normal role. Ameer Abdullah continues to be used like someone who has a role in the offense, while that’s less true for Nick Bellore. When Nick Bawden went down for the season, I had assumed the team would bring in another true fullback to take his place, but they’ve mainly rolled with Bellore. Bellore’s role on special teams is still solid, but they’ve barely used him this preseason as a lead blocker and when they have it hasn’t been great.Wide receiverMarvin Jones Jr.Golden TateKenny GolladayTJ JonesBrandon PowellBradley MarquezJace BillingsleyTeo ReddingChris LacyDontez FordBrian BrownChanges: Powell and Marquez up, Billingsley and Redding down. While there has been no movement at the top, there’s been a bit of shuffling among the rest of the group. Brandon Powell’s emergence into the Jace Billingsley role of taking short dump-offs and slants for solid gains has pushed him up the depth chart while Marquez’s and Redding’s intermediate field ability is completely wasted with Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock having to heave with all their might to get the ball five yards downfield. Tight endsLuke WillsonHakeem VallesLevine ToiloloMichael RobertsSean McGrathMarcus LucasChanges: Valles way up, Roberts downWhile we thought, at first, that this group was all locked up, they went ahead and made it tough for us. Luke Willson is still the presumed starter, but Hakeem Valles has made it tough to keep him off the field. Levine Toilolo has a role due to his upper-tier blocking, but Michael Roberts has done everything in his power to play his way off of the roster. What little value Sean McGrath brought to special teams isn’t enough for a roster spot while Marcus Lucas’ only real hope is to latch on as a practice squadder. Offensive lineLT Taylor DeckerLG Frank RagnowOC Graham GlasgowRG T.J. LangRT Rick WagnerReserves:Tyrell Crosby (OT/OG)Leo Koloamatangi (OC/OG)Corey Robinson (OT/OG)Wesley Johnson (OC/OG)Kenny Wiggins (OG/OC)Joe Dahl (OT/OG/OC)Brian Mihalik (OT)John Montelus (OG)Dan Skipper (TP (tall person))Beau Nunn (OG)Jamar McGloster(OT)Changes: None to starters, Crosby and Koloamatangi up, Wiggins way downThis is a group I have very little faith in, both faith in predicting it and faith in its value if called upon. Tyrell Crosby looks like a steal if his college injury concerns don’t creep up, while Koloamatangi has been one of the Lions’ best players for a second preseason in a row, if only against reserve players. Beyond that, it’s varying degrees of bad. Defensive EndsEzekiel AnsahAnthony ZettelKerry HyderCam JohnsonJeremiah ValoagaChanges: Cornelius Washington cut, Cam Johnson upNot the most inspiring group, but it is what it is. Zettel and Hyder have looked promising, which is a good thing, but mostly only when flipped inside on passing downs. Cam Johnson has been uninspiring, but they’re really repping him like someone who’s making the team. Valoaga is likely headed back to the practice squad.Defensive TackleRicky Jean FrancoisDa’Shawn HandA’Shawn RobinsonJeremiah LedbetterChristian RingoChanges: Hand up, Robinson downOur prediction of Hand becoming a starter soon seemed to be as close as you can come to confirmed against the Bucs when he started alongside Francois in four-down sets and was on the field a ton. The big story is A’Shawn Robinson who has been put in a very favorable position this offseason but has managed to lose ground at every step. After being a huge part of the defense in 2017, he may be relegated to obvious run situations only.Nose TackleSylvester WilliamsToby JohnsonJosh FatuChanges: NoneNothing new here. Williams is coming off his best action this preseason and camp, so hopefully that’s a good sign. Pass Rushing LinebackerDevon KennardAlex BarrettEli HaroldFreddie BishopChanges: Eli Harold addedNot a lot of movement in terms of who’s repping where, but the addition of Eli Harold is going to make things a bit interesting. Devon Kennard figures to be a big part of the defense, but his play hasn’t justified that move so far. It leaves room for someone else to step up, but who makes that move?LinebackerJarrad DavisChristian JonesJalen Reeves-MaybinJonathan FreenySteve Longa (IR)Miles KillebrewChad MeredithDarnell SankeyTrevor BatesChanges: Longa to IR, Killebrew to LBNo significant changes in this group aside from injury, but holy cow have they been bad. Christian Jones and Jarrad Davis were competing to see who could make the most boneheaded plays against the Buccaneers while Jalen Reeves-Maybin has continued to look like a steep regression in coverage is likely. It’s a bad sign for him, but opens the door for Miles Killebrew to sneak back into roster safety now that he’s joined this group. But again, holy crap this group is bad from top to bottom.CornerbackDarius SlayDeShawn SheadQuandre Diggs (Nickel)Nevin LawsonJamal Agnew (Nickel)Teez TaborMike FordChris JonesSterling MooreDexter McDougleJosh OkonyeChanges: No movement in order, but a bunch of churning at the bottomOnce thought to be a strength, this group was thrashed by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Even Slay put on a bad showing, though it wasn’t nearly the horror show Nevin Lawson put on. Despite the poor game, Slay is still a top-tier cornerback, but the rest of this unit looks nearly as bad as the linebackers. SafetyGlover QuinTavon WilsonTracy WalkerCharles WashingtonRolan MilliganMarcus CromartieChanges: Added CromartieThe addition of Marcus Cromartie does nothing to this unit. They’ve actually performed alright, but the lack of pass rush is going to cause them fits as the season goes on.Special TeamsLS. Don MuhlbachK. Matt PraterP. Sam MartinK. Ryan SantosoNothing to see here.