Offtopic » Dolphins receiver Albert Wilson is an underestimated foe

for the Titans entering Week 1 The regular season is at last underway http://www.titansfootballauthentics.com/will-compton-jersey-authentic , which means we get to look forward to the Titans’ week 1 matchup on the road against the Miami Dolphins.For this piece, I will be breaking down a key player on the Dolphins’ offense, which happens to be the newcomer Albert Wilson, previously with the Kansas City Chiefs. Wilson signed a three-year contract with the Dolphins in the offseason, and is expected to have a significant role in Miami’s offense. Behind guys like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, Wilson had 42 catches for 554 yards and three touchdowns. Now, several Titans fans I’ve talked to don’t really value Wilson’s presence on Miami’s receiving corps; In other words, he’s being underestimated. But with fourth-year wideout DeVante Parker being sidelined for week 1 in addition to struggling for most of his career, Wilson will start the season opener and is a receiver Tennessee needs to look out for.Let’s get to the tape.gamepass.nfl.comIn Miami, Wilson is essentially the underneath replacement for now Cleveland Brown receiver Jarvis Landry. It’s highly unlikely that Wilson ever sees the large target shares that Landry had with the Dolphins, but Wilson is the quicker, faster alternative. This is especially apparent in the screen game, where Wilson was a big piece for the Chiefs in 2017.Chiefs head coach Andy Reid loved putting Wilson in bunch formations, and it sounds like Dolphins coach Adam Gase is going to do the same. Wilson is the main target on this play in a bunch set. The other two receivers are there to block for him while the left tackle also goes into the open field to provide additional insurance. This play doesn’t look like much from Wilson since it relies more on the execution of the blocks, but it’s important to note his speed on the play. As long as he gets blockers in the open field, he’ll be able to do the rest and pick up yards after the catch.According to Football Outsiders, Albert Wilson was the most valuable screen receiver in regards to the replacement level in 2017, leading all screen receiver in Defensive-adjusted Yards Above Replacement with 51 DYAR in this area. This is an area the Dolphins look to exploit on Sunday against the Titans, as Wilson is basically a monster in the underneath game.But Wilson is more than just a screen receiver, giving him a little versatility on the line of scrimmage.gamepass.nfl.comAgainst the Broncos in week 17 Youth Marcus Mariota Jersey , Wilson formed a strong bond with the new starting quarterback for the Chiefs in Patrick Mahomes, In that game, Wilson caught 10 passes for 147 yards and was a key contributor on Kansas City’s game winning drive.This clip is not from said drive, but it illustrates how good of a route runner Wilson is. He’s running a simple curl route, but what makes it impressive is just how smoothly he executes it. He cuts inside against the slot defender to start off, putting the defensive back on skates as he comes back to the ball. What’s important about his route is how Wilson is able to space himself far enough that the slot defender has no shot (and let’s be honest it isn’t even close) at disrupting the pass.It’s not the kind of splash play you’d expect from a receiver like Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins, but it illustrates how near flawlessly Wilson has the fundamentals down as a receiver.gamepass.nfl.comHere, Wilson gets to show off some of his athleticism. Again, he’s the screen receiver in a bunch formation, but this time the results look a little more impressive. Once Wilson sees a gap to go through, he accelerates and gets the first down with ease. But he doesn’t stop there, eluding the defensive back #27 with a nice cut to pick up additional yards after the catch.gamepass.nfl.comOn this play, Wilson runs a simple jerk route, where the receiver looks to be running a shallow crossing route before cutting back outside. This is effective when you want to isolate a receiver onto a linebacker, like so in the play above. Andy Reid disguises this as a pick play and instead schemes Wilson open with the jerk route. Despite Mahomes’ throw being behind, Wilson adjusts and cuts the corner, getting a first down in the process.Finally, Wilson can on occasion make the spectacular play. gamepass.nfl.comThis is an excellent catch. Wilson not only displays the tenacity and catch radius advantage on the defensive back, but manages to keep both feet in bounds close to the sideline. There’s not much else to say on this except for “Wow what a catch!”Simply put, Wilson is a threat the Titans need to watch out for. He is an extremely effective receiver underneath when asked to work in the flat Youth Rashaan Evans Jersey , run screens, run shallow crossing routes and run jerk routes. He’s also a guy that can contribute in the intermediate passing game, as highlighted in that week 17 matchup at Denver. To conclude, as slot receivers go, Wilson is pretty good, and needs to be surveyed by the Titans defense in DeVante Parker’s absence, as he’s a new piece in a Dolphins offense trying to turn the corner.What to Expect from Marcus Mariota in 2018 After exploring receiver production in Shanahan/Gruden/McVay schemes last week, I decided to do an offshoot article detailing QB production in the same context.This time, however, I broadened the parameters beyond the first year install of each system.Every year in which Kyle Shanahan, Jay Gruden, and Sean McVay designed a team’s offense either as head coach or offensive coordinator was included.This way, we can not only get a feel for probable year one results for Marcus Mariota, but also project what his trajectory may look like as long as Matt LaFleur (or a disciple of this style of offense) remains in place.Below is a table which includes all of the data I collected.If you’re viewing it on a smartphone, it’s probably going to be clunky due to the width of the table.My apologies.You’re welcome to dig in deep and play with the numbers yourself—just make sure to comment with any additional findings/relevant projections.If you don’t want to drown in a sea of statistics, feel free to jump ahead and check out what I came away with.Note: In any seasons in which more than one QB threw 10 or more passes, a composite stat line is also included.This essentially produces a single QB season out of the multiple partial seasons, with averages weighted to the passing attempt share of each QB.Shanahan/Gruden/McVay QB Stats ReferenceLine ItemCoachYearYear #TeamQBAttemptsCompletionsComp. %Yards/Att.TD %Int %QB RatingDYARDVOALine ItemCoachYearYear #TeamQBAttemptsCompletionsComp. %Yards/Att.TD %Int %QB RatingDYARDVOAMmm ... Delicious NumbersWith all that in mind, the fun can begin.What is Marcus Mariota likely to accomplish this season and beyond under LaFleur?Of course, there are near infinite ways to frame the data in order to attempt to answer that question.Here are a few scenarios that I thought were worth noting http://www.titansfootballauthentics.com/dion-lewis-jersey-authentic , realistic, or intriguing:Average QBAn imaginary, generic QB that produced exactly average results based on 18 seasons worth of data on this scheme would:Throw 559 passing attemptsComplete 63.1% of those attemptsAmass roughly 4250 passing yards (7.6 yards/attempt)Throw 24 touchdowns (4.3 TD%)Throw 15 interceptions (2.7 INT%)Achieve a passer rating of 89.4Produce +538 DYARAchieve +4.2% DVOABased on where most pundits tier Mariota league-wide, they should expect something in this range.What’s ironic is that, in all likelihood, a season of this caliber would earn him more respect from those same pundits even though he’d still have been “average”.Production Within the Top Third All-Time in This SystemLet’s put a little ‘spect on MM8’s name and project that he’ll be slightly above average compared to all past QBs who’ve operated this scheme.What would it look like if he placed in the top third all-time in this system (calculated per metric)? I’m keeping the number of passing attempts “average” here, because we don’t yet know how pass happy LaFleur intends to be.559 passing attempts>66.3% completion rate=/> 8.1 yards/attempt (>~4530 passing yards)>5% TD rate (>~28 TDs)<2.4% INT rate (<~13 INTS)>97.2 QB Rating>+786 DYAR>+15.5% DVOAIt’s safe to say most of us would be pretty happy with this level of production.“LaFleurenstein’s Monster”By factoring in the tendencies of offenses Matt LaFleur has been directly associated with, as well as the current pieces on the Titans’ offense, I think it’s possible to filter the data set and arrive at a better estimate.We can expect LaFleur’s Titans offense to target running backs way more often than Mike Mularkey’s/Terry Robiskie’s—something in the approximate range of 80-100 targets combined for Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry seems plausible.Both Henry and Lewis have averaged better than 4.0 yards per carry in every one of their pro seasons.We can use that fact to eliminate offenses that could not reliably run the ball and were forced to pass more often because of it.We also can likely assume that, barring injury, Corey Davis will be the WR1 in terms of target share, with Rishard Matthews serving as a complementary possession receiver and Taywan Taylor adding a speed element either from the slot or on the outside.Using this logic, I pared down the number of reference points, arriving at 7 specific seasons that paralleled what we should expect to see from the Titans offense in 2018:2010 Redskins2013 Bengals2015 Falcons2016 Falcons2016 Redskins2017 Rams2017 49ersThe average of these offenses gives us this as an estimated guess at Mariota’s stat line in 2018:581 passing attempts63.5% completion rate~4475 passing yards (7.7 yards/attempt)26 Touchdowns (4.5 TD%)13 (2.3 INT%)92.5 QB Rating+696 DYAR+9.2% DVOAWhat I love about this projection is that it acknowledges the trends in past iterations of this offense while also staying true to numbers we’ve seen from Mariota previously.Put another way: outside of a noticeable increase in passing yards, which we should expect to see in this style of scheme, the rest of the metrics don’t stray too far from the ceiling set by MM8 three years into his career.A season like this would simultaneously be a return to form, a new ceiling, and an outstanding jumping off point for the future for Mariota.That brings us to one final comparison ...Year 1 vs. Year 2I isolated scenarios in which a player was the unquestioned starter (i.e. no significant missed time, no QB by committee) in two consecutive years.Unfortunately, that left us only Andy Dalton (2011/2012) Youth Austin Johnson Jersey , Kirk Cousins (2015/2016), and Matt Ryan (2015/2016).Here are their averages during year one vs. year two.Year One:558 Passing Attempts64.7% completion rate7.3 yards/attempt4.2 TD%2.4 INT%90.3 QB rating662 DYAR+6.9% DVOAYear Two:556 Passing Attempts (2/3 passed more)66.4% completion rate (2/3 improved)8.1 yards/attempt (3/3 improved)5.4 TD% (2/3 improved)2.1 INT% (1 improved, 1 stayed the same, 1 regressed)100.6 QB rating (2/3 improved)1132 DYAR (2/3 improved)+18.0% DVOA (2/3 improved)Admittedly, this is a pretty small sample size.It’s bearing is also predicated on Marcus Mariota staying healthy for the grand majority of the next two seasons.Still, it’s good to see that, overall, things trend upward in year two, corroborating what many wise football minds have suggested about this offense.For what it’s worth, both Matt Schaub and Robert Griffin III were the intended starters for their offenses two years in a row, but both lost too much time to injury, in my opinion, to qualify for this comparison.In their respective year twos, Schaub clearly improved while Griffin III clearly declined.As always, thanks for reading!